Day by Day



27 October 2006

Predictions...

A lot of people are pondering and getting all worked up about the midterm elections. History would provide a good predictor of all but a few of the races. This article on poll design should be compulsory reading for every wanna be political hack.

The bottom line is that the congressional races are heavily skewed towards the incumbent. Should a majority of voters rise up in anger (as they did with Joe Liebermann and Cynthia McKinney) they can affect the outcome of the election. However, in both those cases the overturned candidate was outed by their own party in a primary!

My prediction, no major changes in majority.

And if the majority should change - no major changes in policy.

This is not to be feared or reviled, we must adapt out policies in the face of the evolving situation. There is much to correct. And much to reinforce.

2 comments:

Scootmaroo said...

Well, this wannabe political is very concerned about option # 2. Are the repugs TRYING to dissuade dems from voting by making them think their vote is "worthless"? But, how should I know, I am just a wannabe who actually thinks that electronic voting machines can be easily hacked and manipulated by a company who said that the would give the state of Ohio to the president....um, despot.

Citizen Deux said...

I would look at each Secretary of State's (those responsible for elections) report on the viability of electronic voting machines. The government acquisition process is usually so steeped in specification and requirements that only a select few vendors even qualify for consideration.

I also know that all boards of elections are by charter bipartisan. Containing an equal number of democrats and republicans (by the way, until democrats stop using terms like "repugs" there is hradly likely to be any productive discourse) who certify election procedures and changes.

Despite all the press surrounding the vulnerability of the voting machines, no validated study has proven the likelihood of such an event.

There is no superlinked computer system in which votes can be switched from party to party, remote from Dick Cheney's party pad.