At the risk of seeming really foolish - here are my predictions for the November elections in 2008.
- McCain - 53%
- Obama - 44%
- Independent / Other - 3%
I predict Obama to carry Illinois and New York but no other states of consequence.
Why? Well, dear reader(s), it stems from the simple fact that the nation would rather stand with the known and experienced than the unknown and inexperienced. I respect Senator Obama's capability to be a good president. But that's me. Multiply any personal uncertainty by the population of voters and you have a smoothing effect which places the advantage squarely in McCain's court. Short of selecting Vladimir Putin as VP, I think the Arizona senator is on the ascendant.
Wedge issues are not in play here. Gun control was taken off the table by the Supreme Court. The Iraq war is transitioning well. There is a real risk the economy will improve, as it tends to do in the fourth quarter. Finally, the behavior of Russia in Georgia will underscore the real threats existent in the world and the role of the United States as the ONLY real bulwark against unchecked aggression, although I am disappointed at our "public" response.
So, mark your calendars and place your wagers. I have been known to make wild bets and lose them gloriously. As a good friend of mine advised, go big or go home.