Pre-Convention Prediction...

At the risk of seeming really foolish - here are my predictions for the November elections in 2008.
Popular Vote
  • McCain - 53%
  • Obama - 44%
  • Independent / Other - 3%
I predict Obama to carry Illinois and New York but no other states of consequence.  
Why?  Well, dear reader(s), it stems from the simple fact that the nation would rather stand with the known and experienced than the unknown and inexperienced.  I respect Senator Obama's capability to be a good president.  But that's me.  Multiply any personal uncertainty by the population of voters and you have a smoothing effect which places the advantage squarely in McCain's court.    Short of selecting Vladimir Putin as VP, I think the Arizona senator is on the ascendant.
Wedge issues are not in play here.  Gun control was taken off the table by the Supreme Court.  The Iraq war is transitioning well.  There is a real risk the economy will improve, as it tends to do in the fourth quarter.  Finally, the behavior of Russia in Georgia will underscore the real threats existent in the world and the role of the United States as the ONLY real bulwark against unchecked aggression, although I am disappointed at our "public" response.
So, mark your calendars and place your wagers.  I have been known to make wild bets and lose them gloriously.  As a good friend of mine advised, go big or go home.


and you sincerely believe that race and peoples views on race has no tie in whatsoever with the phrase "known and experienced and than the unknown and inexperienced"? I have my doubts about that. I think there are many, many people who will never vote for a black man over a white man, and that view has been reinforced by things I have overheard in bars, restaurants, shops, etc. the two days I have been back in the US. Sad, but true. I pray I am wrong. But it has left me sadly disillusioned.

(BTW-How many people are actually acknowledging the subtle wordplay in the words OBAMA NATION and the word abomination? I must admit, it took me a couple of days to figure our, and I like to think I am intelligent...)
Citizen Deux said…
Really - you are far too cynical. What allowed Margaret Thatcher to be elected in britain - a decidedly male-centric society?

Obama will win based on the belief of the voters in his ability. Consequently, he will lose based on the same credentials.

Otherwise, how would he have won the democratic primary? To make a statement that Democrats are somehow immune to the biases of race is completely ridiculous.

And remember - the plural of anecdote is not data.
Major John said…
"I respect Senator Obama's capability to be a good president. "

Not I. Of course, I have had the advantage of watching him rise through the Illinois State guv'mint. And make no wake in his passing... then go to the Senate where he has done... nothing. I have seen nothing in my entire time knowing who this guy is that tells me he can do anything successfully other than promote himself. Or write books about...himself.

Like I need the Twenty-First Century version of "The Riddle Without a Sphinx" for my CinC.

Citizen Deux said…
Major, as an Illinoisian, you have the front row perspective. I wonder what others said of Carter, Reagan, Clinton and Bush?

I am simply not worried about him being able to f-things up.
sonicfrog said…
My prediction:

McCain will win the popular vote by a few ticks - BUT Obama will win the electoral vote by a good margin. This will somehow bring rightness to a world karma deeply disturbed by the injustice of the stolen 2000 election. (that's the way it will be spun anyway)

I really down have much interest in this campaign or the candidates. Both are economic illiterates who's economic plans are nonsensical and amount to nothing but panderings and give-aways in order to buy votes.