Day by Day



15 February 2006

And the winner is...


Predictions, anyone can make them but few are ever correct. Jay Cost has a great set of predictions for this year's elections. It is interesting in that it relies upon some strong social science theory. Read the whole article for more data.

What is portrays is a rather pragmatic picture of mid-term elections. Congress is elected locally, by populations whose views do not seem to be subject to significant change. The electroates are more driven by economic factors than the performance of their elected officials or external ideology.

And the big question is, so what? There are only a few possible elements which may cause significant swings in the present political landscape, almost none of which are within either party's control.

One, Iran gets hot and military action is required. Look for this to be a benefit to the incumbents all around. No one wants to swap leaders in the middle of a war. For reference, see 2004. Two, the gentleman shot by VP Cheney dies, unlikely. This would (in my opinion) cause the VP to resign. You can not have an elected official in office (except for Ted Kennedy) who is responsible (while in office) for the death of a citizen. Even an accidental death. Three, the economy tanks. This would be the result of a devastating storm season, more problems in the Middle East or something dire in Latin America.

All of these items are possible, some more probable than others. But nothing from our friends on the right or left will influence the mid-term elections one way or another. For all the wionging on the left about wiretaps, Abramoff and the Valerie Plame affair, none of these circumstances rises to any level of seriousness in the eyes of the electorate.

As has been said by many in the past, all politics is local.

6 comments:

Scootmaroo said...

What bothers me more is that the wiretaps, Abramhoff, and Valerie Plame arn't registering with the public. They should. All of these items threaten the sancitity of our democracy and the balance of powers. Sad that American's have become such sheep that they just casually accept the president and his staff so cavalierly breaking the law and ignoring the constitution.

I hope that they will surprise me, of course.

sonicfrog said...

If someone on the left could prove to be a wiser messenger that the current crop, I think you would see more turn-over in congressional elections. The left just hasn't come up with a clear change of coarse, because, IMO, they are still too consumed in their hatred of Bush. That's too bad, because politicaly there has not been a better time for the rival party to be able to make a move out of the blocks. But as long as Kenedy, Biden, Dean, Sheehan et. al. are the predominant spokesmen, the Democratic party probably won't get far. And them there is the Hackett fiasco...

Citizen Deux said...

Wow, I think that sums it up. The American public is a tough customer and unlikely to shift gears.

sonicfrog said...

Soo many misspellings, soo little time:-)

Scootmaroo said...

I hope that is not a dig at all my little typos, sonic....
or am I just being far too sensitive again?

Citizen Deux said...

I think it's mine..