E-day...

At last.

At long last.

The day many Americans have waited for since 2000. Today is the de facto day when the current administration cedes control of the government to its successor. No matter who wins (disclosure – I voted for McCain) there will be substantial change in Washington, DC.

I think the campaigns were conducted well. I think the media slant towards Obama was disgraceful. There will be an endless series of post mortems on this election, some of which will be very good and useful. Many of which will be partisan whining or gloating. I shall avoid the latter.

CBS has posted a few questions to ponder about the election. I do not intend to watch anything on television about the race tonight. I will prefer to read about it on the morrow in The World’s Worst Newspaper^TM, also known as the Atlanta Journal Constitution. The new President and almost certainly overwhelmingly Democratic controlled congress will step into a number of challenges.

1) The conflict in Iraq is almost done, it appears we have been victorious. How do we manage this transition properly?

2) Afghanistan requires more attention and non-military support – including a lot of diplomatic support from Pakistan.

3) Iran remains troubling, although there may be more posturing here than credible threat. They have been hit by oil price collapse and the dearth of capital.

4) The economy. This elephant in the room is an unbelievable item to tackle. Some changes seem easy – fix mark to market accounting. Other challenges are much more daunting – how to revise the tax code fairly. Senator Obama’s plan, as is, will make things worse.

5) The environment. Some would classify me as an AGW denialist. I have personally spoken to real climate scientists who are convinced of AGW (anthropogenic global warming) and others who are more reserved. Bottom line, maintaining our environment is critical to our survival – fishing grounds, potable water and the like are essential. A sound energy policy (alternate fuels, nuclear power, R&D credit) is a key component to this issue.

6) Everything else. These include health care, immigration and foreign issues like Russia and Africa. We need to allocate the appropriate resources in these areas. Health care needs support (McCain’s tax credit is preferable to Obama’s bureaucracy) in the area of funding, tort reform and more preventative approaches. Immigration requires a flexible policy, acknowledgement of illegals in country (some type of amnesty / path to citizenship / guest worker) approach.

Russia may solve itself via the economic crisis and their misstep in Georgia. Africa requires some UN / US involvement which would include armed forces. Diplomacy has failed in the Congo and Sudan. Millions of innocent people are at risk and must be protected.

Other than that, the next four years should be a cake walk!

I will also admonish those whose only existence seems to be to decry the present administration to take a step back and take an objective look. There is much to fault the current administration for in its tenure. But a lot of the criticism is either erroneous or undeserved.

At least after today I can talk about it in the past tense.

Best day ever...

I was just a number.

That number was seven hundred and forty-five to be exact.

I stood in the West Atlanta recreation / senior center gymnasium and stared up a bleachers full of people. People just like me. Citizens. They were old and young. There were the well dressed and shabbily attired, some with children in tow. They read newspapers, books, talked on cell phones and chatted quietly. That quiet chatter collecting to become a buzz among the concrete walls and parquet floors.

I was also not like them. I was number 745 for advance voting. But I was also the only white male in the African-American audience at that early hour of the day. Scarcely a person paid me any attention as I crossed the open floor and ascended the bleachers to sit and wait for my number to be called.

If this was advance voting, I mused, then election day will be chaos.

But the scene was far from chaotic. As I perched on the backless benches, I asked what number we had reached. The answer came quickly from a petite woman calling up to the stands,

“If your number is from 85 to 115, please form a line down here”, gesturing to the top row of the bleachers. She then disappeared around a wall. I stared at my near three quarters of a thousand number and then at my watch. This would require patience.

A ring of my cell phone alerted me to a call from Citizen Prime. She was on the north side and also seeking to perform her patriotic duty (no, not paying more taxes). I told her about my number and we collectively groaned. It was likely that our respective votes would cancel each other out, but the effort was required.

The morning dragged on and soon figures were visible on the far side of the gym. They carried in box after box of potato chips, granola bars and cases of water. One by one, the waiting voters walked across the vacant gym and retrieved a bag or two of chips and a water. An enterprising little girl, no more than five years old, made several trips across the floor delivering her bounty to a variety of people seated in the bleachers. Finally, her mother was called to vote and, lifting her daughter on high, ended her first job as a waitress.

The mood in the gym was electric. These were people on a mission. They were poised to deliver their opinion in the action of their vote. A woman back and to my left had the lucky number of 999. There was no way she would be deterred from her duty. Asking my seatmates if they would like some water or chips, I made my own trek to the oasis of Frito-Lay. Upon turning about, I was stunned to note that the population of the gym had seemingly doubled in the last two hours.

I climbed back to my perch, continuing to exchange pleasantries with my seatmates, an older woman, a well dressed young man and a dapper lady in a rhinestone banded fedora who proclaimed herself to be 57, although she looked ten years younger.

We never traded names. Each person was content to clutch their secret prayer, as if en route to the wailing wall. They were eager to cast it into the electronic ether and await the deity’s answer.

At long last, around 1:30pm, my set of numbers was called. Obediently, I lined up and presented by credentials to the poll worker. Why people complain about picture IDs is beyond me. There was no one in that hall who didn’t have one form of acceptable ID. After our initial vetting, we were ushered into the halls of the senior / recreation center.

I was greeted with the sight of rooms of seniors, talking and waiting for various services – flu shots, financial counseling and a voting. The staff moved smoothly among the eldest and exhibited quiet respect for people who had likely stood on the front lines of the battle to secure the civil and voting rights for the bulk of citizens here today. One older gentleman sat directly across from the entryway and looked each of us in the eye. His navy blue ball cap proclaimed “World War II” veteran.

He looked each of us over as if weighing our worth to cast a ballot. I felt a moment of utter transparency as I passed in front of his gaze. I acknowledged his service with a brief nod. I could sense that he expected me to carry out my task with seriousness and reverence for the actions of all those before me.

I arrived at the terminal where my registration was verified and accepted the small yellow card which was my key to vote. I stood next to one of my seat mates, number 736. As I approached, I could see over his shoulder that he had selected Senator Obama. He was a young, earnest man – about thirty. Married, he had taken this day to vote – Tuesday’s were his days off and he wanted to insure his choice was counted.

Smiling, I stepped up to the touchscreen display. The ballot was full. President, congress, senators, a host of judges and a variety of funding initiatives for various purposes, all stared at me in LCD illumination. I consider myself well informed. But I confess, some of the names and slots were mysterious.

Most disappointing to me were the number of unopposed seats for various positions. My personal nemesis, Congressman John Lewis, sat unchallenged on the screen. In an act of sheer frustration, I wrote in my own name to oppose him.

At last I touched the green CAST YOUR BALLOT square. With a sharp click, the yellow card popped out of the machine. It was a far less satisfying sound than the sliding lever pulling back the curtains surrounding voting machines of yore. Machines I only saw with my mother as she dragged me along to vote in Florida so many years ago. She always seemed satisfied as we walked into the autumn sunshine – ever present in Florida.

Now I walked out into the sunlight. My own inner spiritual citizen refreshed by a seemingly simple process which transpires, like clockwork, every four years. Simply basking in the glow of fellow citizens exercising their right replenished my own faith on our nation.

It was the best day ever.

A tale of two citizens...

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

I travel a fair amount. It is a benefit and curse. I truly prefer the comforts of home and family, but relish the exploratory feelings and experience of travel. As I sat down on the outbound and inbound flights over the past weekend, I had the opportunity to meet and talk with two citizens of this nation. Two citizens who represent, I think, the wide gulf among the political views of the country.

These citizens are alike in many ways. They will have an impact on our nation and come from two of the battleground states. One, a MIT educated mechanical engineer starting his first real job. The other is a college educated, professional mother of two who runs her own business and works in the PR field.

As I sat down on the flight from the relative chaos of Atlanta Hartsfield, I noted a young man making his way down the aisle, sweeping his eyes along the seat row numbers for his place on the packed airliner. He had a youthful, grunge style beard topped by an unruly mop of black hair. Had he been clean shaven, he would have looked about fourteen. He wore a large scale Obama t-shirt, one of the ones with his picture emblazoned upon on it in Warhol style.

Lo and behold, this young, pale kid was going to sit next to me. Sliding in next to the window, he looked about with the eagerness of someone who still enjoys air travel. I scanned him for some opportunity to talk with him, that didn’t start with;

“So, you’re an Obama supporter, eh sonny?”

Looking him over carefully, I noted my opening. There on his right hand, looking like a Super Bowl championship ring was the golden beaver. For the uninitiated, the mascot of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is a beaver. It is displayed on their rings prominently and referred to as the “golden beaver”. MIT is one of the top technology schools in the nation. It’s students have contributed to the innovation and growth of our nation in every major field of science.

As it turned out, this young man was a mechanical engineer, as am I. We engaged in the sort of discussion that only engineers, upon discovering their commonality, can. I learned that he was newly employed by Johnson and Johnson in their surgical tool design division. He was one of the few, bright handpicked graduates to enter the J&J management development program. He was an intelligent guy with a wide range of interests. We talked about his motorcycle, his love of rock climbing and his recent prize possession, a Volvo C30, five cylinder turbo he bought directly from the factory in Sweden. He traveled there, bringing along his mother, and then drove to Denmark where his father resided.

He was excited to be in his new career and loved what he was doing. Although he expressed some dissatisfaction with the social scene in Cincinnati, he was engaged in trying to improve his lot. Traveling home for the first time in more than a year, he was looking forward to doing some scuba diving and an early Thanksgiving dinner with his family. As we got around to politics, he described himself as a social and fiscal liberal. The son of a described “hippie” mother, he seemed comfortable with the promise of a better world, without really worrying about the details.

Like many engineers, I think he expected people to approach problems rationally, without being swayed by outside, irrelevant influences. When he learned that I was in the Navy, he asked me if I supported McCain because he had been in the Navy. And this is when it struck me, his vote was a vote of affiliation. He seemed to support Obama not from some deep alignment with his policies, but from a feeling of affiliation. Obama’s Ivy league academic credentials, his message of hope and change resonated with this young man without really connecting on policy.

There was no real thought as to how an Obama presidency might affect him, his career or his future potential. Senator Obama's initiatives will have an impact on all of these elements. It may prove to be especially hard on his company's surgical tool division. It was ironic that Jake the Engineer’s company was manufacturing all these components in Juarez, Mexico. A fact possibly affected by Obama’s promise to unilaterally rewrite NAFTA at the behest of his Union supporters. Additionally, I expect his career in Johnson and Johnson will likely be very successful, at which point he will cross the $250,000 mark in income (most directors in major corporations can earn this amount in salary and bonuses). It is there he will find himself with a significantly larger tax burden, which he will seek to reduce - substantially. Finally, the impact of the Obama adminstration will likely be negative to J&J’s surgical division with a possible reduction in innovation and growth as the healthcare market is regulated by the government.

On the return trip to Atlanta I staggered through the narrow aisle of the MD-88 looking for my middle seat. The plane was loading horrendously slowly and the woman ahead of me slid her rolling bag smoothly into place and slipped gracefully into her window seat. I took note of her fluid movements and pegged her as a veteran traveler. Looking at the row sign, I also realized that she would be my seat mate. With decidedly less grace, I landed in the middle seat while at the same time praying to the airline gods to make sure the size of my aisle partner was not overwhelming.

Prayers answered, once again I tried to determine if there was a way to open a conversation. I had my new book, The Strongest tribe, by Bing West, but was too tired to read. And then that magic moment of Chopra synchro-destiny occurred. She pulled out her phone. It was a Sprint update of my own HTC model. I leapt on the opening and we chatted about phones. She immediately demonstrated a fairly hardcore approach to selecting her phone and I found her rational style refreshing.

As we talked, I learned that she had served as a public relations manager for Chrysler and ran with the corporate wolves in Michigan. We talked about energy policy and the various approaches underway to address the challenges in the world. She was well versed in policies and shared with me her occupation was as a freelance public relations expert working on a number of projects.

What was most compelling was her personal story of she and her husband’s (a mechanical engineer who had been an electrician in the 1990s before returning to college to obtain his degree) experience with buying, owning and operating a business. The business was a Goodyear tire and auto center. They had ten employees and felt confident in their ability to succeed in a growing area of the nation. They provided employee family health insurance, solid benefits and service to the community. As she described it, she and her husband thought themselves the “smartest people on the planet”.

Then the housing crisis hit and one by one the builders stopped their developments and abandoned the area. Their business began losing money and they applied for a catastrophic SBA loan to carry them through the hard time. What they were told was that since they were “coping” there would be no loan. They sold the business at a terrible loss and were forever soured on government intervention in the market.

They picked up the pieces and carried on, providing for their two daughters and retooling their plans. She was adamant in her opposition to Obama and support for McCain. The toll from Obama's plans upon her liveliehood was that she was expecting, as a small business owner, (making less than the much bandied about $250,000 per year) was going to be crippling to her plans for growth.

She was also fierce in her abhorrence of the media’s complete support of Senator Obama without any real scrutiny and she was frustrated with Senator McCain’s inability to successfully explain his plans – which even Consumer Reports indicated as superior to Obama’s (the healthcare portion). Naturally, her position and contacts afforded her some access to people and information the typical citizen would not have. But we now live in a remarkably more transparent world. Anyone with the will and wit may distill the truth from a myriad of suspiscious claims.

I found the conversation invigorating and oddly parallel to that on my outward bound flight. My spouse, Citizen Prime, in her own world view, would immediately attribute this to some universal force providing me with this opportunity. In this instance, I may agree with her.

Jane the Publicist and Jake the Engineer represent two distinct spectrums of thought in America. One is the unbridled optimism and expectations of someone just beginning their journey as a citizen (I don’t consider college students full citizens as they typically do not pay taxes – citizens in training would be a better moniker). That is the model put forth by Jake the Engineer, or more appropriately Jake the Idealist. He lives in the world of the theoretical, where the ideals of the nation are enshrined. In his world, all things can be solved with the right application of government guidance and human acceptance. He has yet to face a crisis in which his worldview is challenged.

Jane the Publicist, or Jane the Pragmatist, carries those ideals as well. They have been tempered with having to raise a family, meet a payroll and deal with the myriad crises of real life. Some of which include being laid off from a supposedly “secure” corporate job. Jane wants to improve her life and have a positive impact on as many people around her as she can. She wants to be fair and provide incentives and support for her employees. She expects those who work for her to pull their weight in order to share in the reward. It is a reasonable and typical independent American philosophy.

It is not a dissimilar view from Jake the Idealist. A view that he will likely share in a decades time.

With Senator Obama we have an idealist – setting aside the burden you believe he carries to special interest groups. With Senator McCain we have a pragmatist – setting aside whatever connections you believe he has to the present administration.

It is the individual who understands the balance between government facilitation and government control who I want leading the nation. I am just not sure if the rest of the country understands this choice.

At least Joe the Plumber had the courage to ask the question, even if our media will not.

When all is said and done...

The polls are swinging consistently in favor of Obama. The economic crisis has proven the old adage that all politics are local. When people begin to worry about their savings, jobs and ability to pay their bills, they will grasp at any new idea - no matter how flimsy. Ironically, during an external crisis (war, for example) people are unwilling to swap leadership as the risk appears too great. Make no mistake, Senator Obama has no better plan for the economy than John McCain and his economic viewpoint is more at odds with a capitalistic, free-market society than anyone. What will mitigate his approach will be the economic reality on the ground. He can not possibly make fundamental changes with entitlement programs consuming the bulk of his budget and potentially flat revenue.

The next president will have to face down excessive spending, reignite capital movement and (hopefully) foster innovation as a source of growth for the nation. Unlike those on the far left of the spectrum who boldly proclaimed their intention to depart the United States for other lands, I have no intention of doing so. A nation run by Barack Obama will STILL be head and shoulders over ANY other nation on the planet. It will be my civic duty to make sure that the new President doesn't wander into areas I consider unhealthy for the nation (second amendment issues, income redistribution, abandoning free trade, national defense, etc.). At the same time, the new president will have to perform.

We don't live in an era of blind trust anymore. The watershed collapse of that began in the 1960s and has continued through the ultra-transparent years of the internet ascendancy. Individuals who wish to blindly blame the current administration for the financial problems reveal themselves immediately and either uninformed or ideologues. What we have seen is that a 14 trillion dollar economy requires careful handling and something as innocuous as extending the envelope of risk acceptance for capital investment (i.e. dicey mortgages) can precipitate a global catastrophe.

That is a change we certainly could have done without.

The race...

I am very fortunate.  I am able to subscribe to XM radio and benefit from a variety of programming (almost all of it free of commercials).  One of my newest favorites is XM 130.  This is the POTUS (President of the United States) channel.  And before the members of my Chomsky reading fan base chime in, it is NOT twenty-four seven playing of George Bush saying the word "nucular".  It is a great collection of partisan news programs, non-partisan interviews and commentary from great folks in the thick of the campaign process.  It's been on the air almost a year and covers candidate speeches unfiltered from start to finish.  This channel, like sources such as www.factcheck.org, reflect the continuing evolution of real information politics.  It was observed today that by the principal of a focus group company (www.mediacurves.com) that both candidate's negative ads are being viewed negatively by both sides.  What is clear from the voting population is that they want to hear some substantive ideas from either candidate.  This is something that neither side is delivering.  Between Sarah Palin being pinned down by Katie Couric on John McCain's legislative record, to Joe Biden claiming he was "forced down" in a helicopter in Afghanistan, the candidates aren't giving the voters any meat for their political stew.

 

I have set myself solidly down in the McCain camp.  There are many positive reasons and some negative ones.  On the positive front, I think he will manage the economy better.  He is an advocate for smaller government and revising our tax code to favor growth, innovation and investment.  He is far superior in the realm of national security and his personal military experience (and yes, his captivity) give him a unique human perspective on the cost of conflict.  Finally, he is decidedly out of the mainstream in his party with regard to social issues.  Although he claims to be "pro-life" and touts in a 2007 statement that he will appoint conservative judges to the SCOTUS, his past record and actions contradict that.  My sense is that once elected, he will simply walk away from these "distraction" issues and govern.

 

Senator Obama captures my attention for his ambition, skill and rhetoric.  I am very concerned about his pedigree (Bill Ayers and the Annenberg Challenge specifically).  I am deeply concerned about his position on guns.  I do not think his financial plan for the nation is viable.  As one of the "rich" taxpayers he is targeting, I think his approach to revenue generation is flatly socialist and at odds with the foundation of our nation's economic strength.  He is also opposed to missile defense, the single biggest tool in our diplomatic arsenal.  The mere suggestion that we would place units in Poland or Ukraine gained substantial attention from Russia.  The ability to defend Japan or any of the Persian Gulf states from North Korea or Japan is critical to maintaining stability in the region. 

 

I am not vitriolicly opposed to Obama, as many seem to be towards McCain.  And I don't think that Obama's race makes a whit of difference (although I think that Hillary's did to the DNC).  And so onward the race trundles.  McCain's "put your money where your mouth is" move to delay the debate synched nicely with his "country first" message.  

Pre-Convention Prediction...

At the risk of seeming really foolish - here are my predictions for the November elections in 2008.

 

Popular Vote

• McCain - 53%
• Obama - 44%
• Independent / Other - 3%

I predict Obama to carry Illinois and New York but no other states of consequence.  

 

Why?  Well, dear reader(s), it stems from the simple fact that the nation would rather stand with the known and experienced than the unknown and inexperienced.  I respect Senator Obama's capability to be a good president.  But that's me.  Multiply any personal uncertainty by the population of voters and you have a smoothing effect which places the advantage squarely in McCain's court.    Short of selecting Vladimir Putin as VP, I think the Arizona senator is on the ascendant.

 

Wedge issues are not in play here.  Gun control was taken off the table by the Supreme Court.  The Iraq war is transitioning well.  There is a real risk the economy will improve, as it tends to do in the fourth quarter.  Finally, the behavior of Russia in Georgia will underscore the real threats existent in the world and the role of the United States as the ONLY real bulwark against unchecked aggression, although I am disappointed at our "public" response.

 

So, mark your calendars and place your wagers.  I have been known to make wild bets and lose them gloriously.  As a good friend of mine advised, go big or go home.

 

Time Machine...

Super Tuesday is behind us and the road to the Presidency is just as foggy as ever. Both democratic candidates are claiming victory and the republican field is in some disarray, due to the “anti-vote” in support of Mike Huckabee.

Full disclosure, I pulled the lever (touched the screen) for McCain.

Huckabee appeals to the old line conservatives of the party who clamor for a rigid adherence to values. Although I think that Romney is the best manager in the group, the President has little effect on the economy. I prefer McCain’s stronger national security posture and flexible domestic policy.

Ron Paul had a decent showing in the northwest, a location of fierce independents and the former home of Ted Kaczinski (the Unabomber), various militias and many adherents to the “code of the west”. Paul, who hasn’t a prayer of influencing the convention or making a dent in the news cycle the moment he drops out of the race, remains the crotchety curmudgeon.

Ron Paul: “In my day we had to barter in gold and beaver pelts..”

Interviewer: “But congressman, when FDR moved from the gold standard, isn’t that one of the most commonly cited reasons for recovery after the crash of 1929?”

Ron Paul: “When I was a flight surgeon, we had to wing walk to look after our patients…”

He is, bless his heart, a crank.

Huckabee, however, poses a much more challenging puzzle. He will have some influence in the convention.

Hopefully very little.

The specter of a revival of the religious right in the GOP is depressing. Frankly, there is enough to work on with security, economics, education and health care without resurrecting rhetorical constructs like abortion, gay marriage and the inclusion of the ten commandments in public documents.