Demographics, the new crystal ball..

Much has been made of the shifting cultural sands of the planet. Many people have an opinion on the subject. Mark Steyn has an article which also encapsulates many of my own thoughts.

Everything can be boiled down to evolution. As I and Citizen Prime (the spouse) were watching her favorite show (Travel Channel's Most Haunted), I remarked how men's earrings were no longer worthy of mention. At one point they were a defining statement for sexuality, criminal alignment or a host of other subcultural identifiers. Now they are simply there. Most are worn by the young and trendy (not my demographic). But in the space of less than two decades, their presence has become de riguer.

I contend that the present trend in population also will predict the future state of the world. A former boss of mine, CAPT Tim Scheib (USN), stated that the way to shape a culture is simple. Control the press, control the police and control the schools.

But by far the best impact is the schools.

Al Gore, bridesmaid...

Al Gore has spent some time in Jeddah speaking through his hat. He purports to know of Arab / Muslim Americans who are being routinely rounded up and treated poorly in the United States.

I wonder if he has called the ACLU?

And the winner is...

Predictions, anyone can make them but few are ever correct. Jay Cost has a great set of predictions for this year's elections. It is interesting in that it relies upon some strong social science theory. Read the whole article for more data.

What is portrays is a rather pragmatic picture of mid-term elections. Congress is elected locally, by populations whose views do not seem to be subject to significant change. The electroates are more driven by economic factors than the performance of their elected officials or external ideology.

And the big question is, so what? There are only a few possible elements which may cause significant swings in the present political landscape, almost none of which are within either party's control.

One, Iran gets hot and military action is required. Look for this to be a benefit to the incumbents all around. No one wants to swap leaders in the middle of a war. For reference, see 2004. Two, the gentleman shot by VP Cheney dies, unlikely. This would (in my opinion) cause the VP to resign. You can not have an elected official in office (except for Ted Kennedy) who is responsible (while in office) for the death of a citizen. Even an accidental death. Three, the economy tanks. This would be the result of a devastating storm season, more problems in the Middle East or something dire in Latin America.

All of these items are possible, some more probable than others. But nothing from our friends on the right or left will influence the mid-term elections one way or another. For all the wionging on the left about wiretaps, Abramoff and the Valerie Plame affair, none of these circumstances rises to any level of seriousness in the eyes of the electorate.

As has been said by many in the past, all politics is local.

Love me, love my car...

It is now official, I am in a one sided relationship. I broke down after more than a decade and bought a new car.

It is the highly rated and superbly engineered Acura TL.

Yoiks, I am not worthy. The damn car talks to you, and you can talk back. You can choose between the sultry female voice or the agressive male tone to keep your attention on the road from its GPS linked NAV system.

My beloved 1995 Taurus SHO, the White Star, has been retired. I can only hope to hear about it as a converted street racer in SoCal.



Oh well, happy valentine's day to me.

It bears repeating...

(AP Photo/Sayyid Azim)

According to the AP caption: "An unidentified Kenyan woman demonstrates in Nairobi, Kenya Friday Feb. 10, 2006."

Courtesy of AP and seen on Volokh and Moon Battery. The disconnect between the West and Islamofascists has never been more clearly demonstrated.

*** UPDATE ***

A good link to the cartoons in question.

More nuts please...

Jimmy Carter is out of touch. His repeated forays back into politics have revealed him to be a thin, fluttery image of a man with no hold on any ideals whatsoever.

Aside from swinging a hammer in the cause of Habitat for Humanity, the ex-President from Georgia has continually provided fodder for the conservative right and a pitchman, albeit a hollow one, for the radical left.

His latest debacle occurred at the funeral of Coretta Scott King. This is a woman who died from serious health issues in an experimental clinic in Mexico. During the eulogies, of which there were lgion, Carter dove into a personal political diatribe on the current state of affairs.

Most distasteful. The event should have been a celebration of the life of a noble woman and not a grandstand for faded political figures.

Carter is a buffoon. If he had acted with any resolve during his administration, we may not be in this mess today. But the same may be said for many leaders stretching all the way back to the end of the 19th century.

Tsk tsk.

Thank you sir, may I have another...

So, you are the President. Your job is a constant barrage of meetings, split decisions and no win press events.

Wahoo.

A noted civil rights figure dies. You attend her funeral and are subjected to harangues from one of your predecessors (who ranks among the most mediocre) and inflammatory idealogues masquerading as pious men of the cloth.

Fun in the sun, yessir.

In and out...

It's a fact, what goes up must come down, aside from my hairline. The flows of petroleum through the United States and Canada are staggering. The United States alone consumes (uses up) 19.66 million barrels per DAY! This is a whopping 1 billion gallons every day.

The lion's share of this insatiable appetite is found in our transportation sector. More than 2/3 of our oil is used for gasoline.

Holy cow.

Forget the arguments for reinstating nuclear power (although I think it a valid pursuit), the resultant reduction in oil usage would be a pittance. Converting dense population areas to all electric powered transit, supplied by nuke plants would have a huge impact!



But that's not all of the problem, we source our oil from all over the world, a substantial amount from the mideast, but not all. Could we function as an economy without the mideast input?

Yes, but not very well.

Remember the oil embargo of the 70s? We were consuming a third of the oil at the time, but still in the same ratios from various geographies.

So what?

So, the left's mantra about no blood for oil is actually true. Our reliance on Iraq for oil is negligible. Thus we have actually shed no blood for oil. Oil moves regionally and Iraq is much more closely tied to Europe and Africa.

Now blood to prevent zealots from killing us...I will shed for that.

So what should we do? Change our dependence upon petroleum for transportation. This means technology and automakers who understand that the product they sell must meet the needs of the consumer. While oil is still plentiful, and it is, no one is going to give up their gasoline car for a limping electric powered coupe which costs twice as much and maybe three times as much to maintain.

Where to start? Start with fleets. Any freight or centrally managed fleet can be converted to alternate fuels and not become crippled by a lack of refueling infrastructure. Many city bus systems have a large natural gas fleet, and yet this is at its heart still part of the petroleum chain.

The United States is the most innovative nation on the planet. If we can design a palm sized device which can recieve videos from anywhere in the globe, we can build a non-petroleum fueled automobile.

Just the Facts M'am...

I foolishly skipped over to AmericaBlog to view the controversy surrounding the Joint Chiefs of Staff's letter to the Washington Post regarding Toles cartoon in that paper. Personally, I agree with the position of the JCS. The WaPo is distributed in the heart of the area in which many amputees are recovering. Using the graphic image of a missing limbed soldier is in poor taste. But that's just me.

Remember the Doonesbury flap about BD losing his leg? It has been a good storyline, I 've always liked Trudeau's characters, even if I am at odds with his politics.

So to the facts, how is the security situation in Iraq? What is going on with the economy? I will not argue the merits of these pieces. There is a mix of opinion and fact in each. However, I particularly like these lines in the Times piece.

"But now comes the paradox. While America has been run by one of the most doltishly ineffectual governments in history, it has forged ever further ahead of Europe in terms of wealth, science, technology, artistic creativity and cultural dominance.
Why does America’s prosperity and self-confidence seem to bear so little relationship to the competence of its government? The obvious answer is that America, founded on a libertarian theory of minimal government, has always had low expectations of politicians"

I would submit that our foreign policy is actually driven by responding properly to world events, rather than the dictums of any administration.

Now what...

The State of the Union is over. I did not watch it, preferring to read it after the fact and avoid the emotional impact of live TV. There is a good link (via Instapundit) on the Blogosphere's view of the SOTU. It includes left and right views as well as some on the Democratic response.

I liked Governor Kaine's response in that it was delivered by a governor, and not a senator. However, comparisons between Virginia's success and the national arena is a false analogy. Endlessly harping on the "lack of body armor" is not a strategy.

I know there are areas for improvement in the execution of our foreign and domestic policy. I would like to see MORE decisive action and greater transparency. This new state of affairs in the world demands genuine discussion of ideas and options!

Let us not forget that we can not sit still during this period. Events in our world are moving quickly and the result of these new freedoms in some areas may produce even larger challenges. The old adage of "be careful what you wich for" applies.

The government of the United States is embarked on a number of policies. You may not agree with them, but it is our system which requires (and allows) debate and decision, not radical revolution.

I am, admittedly, very frustrated by those who would quickly cast rhetoric and insults over reason and ideas. This applies to the right and left. The polarization of our society into a tribal arrangement is very concerning. Bill Whittle published a nice summary of his feelings, which match pretty closely with mine.

I guess I'd just like to say, let's talk...

Citizens, start your engines...

Tonight will be our nations chance to begin anew.  At the close of the State of the Union address, we will be faced with the grim task of assessing the realities of the world and our role in it.  This includes the tasks set before our nation domestically.  We face many challenges.  I would label them as follows;

 

1) Global Security - this covers energy issues and hostile regimes / ideologies

2) Healthcare Costs - at home and abroad (malaria, HIV, etc.)

3) Revising the roster of entitlement programs - Social Security, Medicare, etc.

4) Economic growth - Free trade, the environment, worker rights

 

Wrapped around all of these elements is something I like to call freedom.  It is not the freedom of some lame country and western song, but it is the freedom which has been slowly illuminating societies across our planet for hundreds of years.  This freedom, in my definition, is one in which people are unfettered by religious persecution (see Islamofascists, ultra orthodox Judaism, Evangelical Christianity, nutville Buddhism or whacked out Wicca), governmental interference (from North Korean oppression to City of Atlanta property moratoriums).  It is a freedom in which transparency of action is the norm, rather than the exception.  It is a freedom in which information and facts flow freely and debate centers around issues vice innuendo.

 

I do believe that the United States has a preeminent role to play in the world.  I also believe that if more societies had our model, the world would be a better place.  I also acknowledge that the model is not perfect and some places have a better handle on where we need to improve. 

 

Finally, I am strongly committed to the use of debate, diplomacy and discourse to achieve a better world.  But I am not so naive to imagine that force of arms should not be considered as well. 

 

You know you're too self indulgent when...

James Lileks has a great post on the perils of blogging. Or the internet use in general. I sympathize. As an example, the State of the Union address this Tuesday will be fodder for each side to rocket to new heights of hyperbole.

So buckle your seatbelts, everyone and cinch up your drawstring pajamas, it's going to be a bumpy week!

Free markets only work when they're free...

There is a great review of an important economic change from 1968 until now over on TCS Daily. Arnold Kling takes a stab at representing some underlying issues within the current bi-polar policy debate in this nation.

I am a free marketer. I fully support the ownership and use of capital for a person's own needs. I also believe that this leads to a better society in general. Hernando de Soto in his work The Mystery of Capital, outlines the basis for success in the free markets and failure everywhere else.

Markets ignore their own customers at their peril. We are now in the midst of a radical change in the media market. Absent government controls and interference, the virtual media world is overtaking the old "brick and mortar" media world. In Canada, the CBC is in a literal tail spin as the external pressure from non-aligned media has overturned their government.

Why should this matter? It matters because markets will continually shape society and it is the households of the world which make up markets.

What else might benefit from a unlimbering of restrictions and impediments?

Healthcare?

Education?

Why not...