Doomed, or not…

Those nutty physicists are at it again! In a typical, overly erudite article in the New Yorker magazine, scientists at CERN have built a machine to destroy the world!

Well, maybe not. The issue at hand is probability versus possibility. Possibility is the set of events encompassing all outcomes. It may be time limited or not. For example, it may be said that all things are possible. And in the strictest sense of the definition this is true. The world ending outcomes of certain experiments at the LHC at CERN are possible. However, as you may have surmised, the probability is exponentially low. It is probability which drives most of our decision making. If I exceed the speed limit here, I will probably not be caught, although there is a possibility of being ticketed.

Probability, I contend is the root of all evil.

The unlikely and improbable are worth exploring. I am a big fan of the unknown. I enjoy watching shows like Ghost Hunters and applaud the semi-scientific approach used by itinerant Rhode Island, plumbers Jason and Grant.

Like David Duchovny’s character on the X-files, Fox Mulder – I want to believe. But I am not a fan of self delusion. When a subject is moves from the realm of improbable to the realm of wholly unlikely, I tend to lose interest. A prior favorite topic of interest was crop circles. M. Night Shyamalan made these popular in his very entertaining science fiction / horror flick Signs.

After that film a lot of attention was paid to the phenomenon. There are some very serious people looking at the fringes of our knowledge and understanding. Some of these people are in the group CSICOP. Some of these people are as serious, just not too diligent.

Some circle fans have worked hard to stitch the occurrence of crop circles to aliens and UFOs. Others attribute “earth energy” and paranormal origins to these “manifestations”. For example, the images represented on the BLT (no relation to the tasty sandwich) site are the result of too much wishful thinking and some clear manipulation of images. On the other hand, several folks spend a lot of time documenting the first circle of the season.

At times their attachment is seemingly harmless, and yet their zealous adherence to non-rational explanations is curious. Although the reality of these designs is far more mundane (great revelation from the BBC Inside Out Crop Circles Revealed), the tenacity with which people cling to clearly improbable beliefs is the real subject of my curiosity. On the Circlemakers page resides a good work of the treatise on the philosophy of circles. It speaks to powerful cultural forces and how humans construct their inner worlds.

As evidence I share with you an e-mail exchange with one Dr. Johan Carl Calleman. Dr. Calleman is (was) a biologist who conducted serious research for a period of time. At some point he became fascinated with the Mayans and the writings of individuals who attributed a variety of extra-normal abilities, particularly in regard to their calendar. Dr. Calleman wrote his own book and now leads a sect(?) of believers who contend that global change will occur in 2012.

*sigh*

I actually like him, he has never shied away from debate, answers his own e-mail and is pleasant. However, on this topic I felt compelled to challenge him. He gratuitously linked a crop circle to his interpretation of the Mayan calendar.

From: Carl Johan Calleman [mailto:cjcalleman@swipnet.se]
Sent: Saturday, May 26, 2007 4:11 PM
Subject: Crop Circle marks the midpoint of the Fifth DAY (May 22, 2007, 5
Ahau)
Please feel free to post and disseminate!

Crop Circle marks the midpoint of the Fifth DAY (May 22, 2007, 5 Ahau) A
possible link between the Mayan calendar and the crop circles has for long been
a matter of discussion. Around the critical midpoint of the Galactic Underworld
(May 22, 2007, 5 Ahau in the Sacred Mayan Calendar) several hundred thousand
people have been gathering around the planet for celebrations and peace
meditations (The Breakthrough Celebration, see http://www.commonpassion.org/).

Significant ceremonies being part of this world wide movement are the
Oneness day of May 20 (3 Edznab), the Jerusalem Hug of May 21 (4 Cauac) and The
World Tree (Medicine Wheel) of May 22 (5 Ahau). All of these themes seem to have
been reflected in a crop circle that was reported in Wiltshire, early in the
season, on the exact midpoint of the Fifth DAY of the Galactic Underworld, http://www.cropcircleconnector.com/2007/wexford/wexford2007.html
a day when also elders in Guatemala performed ceremonies to honor the four
directions. This is one of the most amazing associations seen to date between
the crop circle phenomenon and the Mayan calendar. It raises the question
whether this crop circle was somehow a reflection of the collective
consciousness of humanity as manifested in the themes of this breakthrough
celebration or if it comes out of a cosmic level of intelligence.

Namaste and In Lak'ech
Carl Johan
Carl Johan Calleman
cjcalleman@swipnet.se

From: CD
To: Carl Johan Calleman
Subject: Crop Circles

Dr. Calleman,

I am concerned as the
crop circle phenomenon has been largely debunked. I see no connection, other
than some intrepid individuals creating this agri-art. http://www.circlemakers.org/. You risk
continued distraction from your message by associating with known frauds.

Best regards,

CD

From: Carl Johan Calleman [mailto:cjcalleman@swipnet.se]
Sent: Saturday, June 02, 2007 4:43 PM
To: Citizen DeuxSubject:
Re: Crop Circle marks the midpoint of the Fifth DAY (May 22, 2007, 5 Ahau)
Dear CD,

Few experts on Crop Circlesw would agree with you. Even though a few might
have been made by humans it seems most our not.

Carl Johan 2 jun 2007 kl. 22.39 skrev:

From: Citizen Deux Sent: Saturday, June 02, 2007 4:59 PM
To: Carl Johan CallemanSubject:
RE: Crop Circle marks the midpoint of the Fifth DAY (May 22, 2007, 5 Ahau)

Dr. Calleman,

I would be interested to understand the CV of the "experts" you quote. The
crop circle phenomenon is clearly man made. The localized geography (England,
parts of the US and the Netherlands - areas with advanced systems to detect and
analyze such "events"), commercial demonstrations and lack of substantive
evidence belies any unearthly genesis.

May I suggest · The Field Guide: The Art, History and Philosophy of Crop
Circle Making by Rob Irving and John Lundberg, edited by Mark Pilkington
(Strange Attractor 2006) ISBN
0-9548054-2-9 A solid treatise on the popular culture phenomenon of circles.

CD

Perhaps not surprisingly, this is a pretty loose connection. The crop circle “season” begins in the Wiltshire area of England and runs through the harvest in the fall. But more interesting is the desire of Dr. Calleman, and others, to divine some greater purpose from the seemingly unpredictable existence in which we reside.

This continual pull between reason and faith lives today in the myriad of beliefs which one can find (with ease) online. These beliefs range from the CERN catastrophe about to take place, to the 2012 theorists and of course to all the political conspiracies one can name.

Fascinating.

I remain open to the possible, but will commit my energies to the probable.

UPDATE: E-mail edited for chronology.

DoD Identifies Army Casualty...

I signed up for the DoD news ticker some time ago. Every day I am
bombarded with a variety of stories from the ridiculous (DoD supports
Western California Red Tailed Hawk Habitat) to the grim. Most of the
messages I gloss over and move on. The net has replaced the newspaper
and broadcast media as my primary and usually single source for
information.

Every day I stop, however, and carefully read the casualty reports.
These are only the notices which have resulted in fatalities. Spc.
Ashley, a young man from Kansas lost his life in service to his nation
on May 24th. He was doing what he was trained to do, doing what he
volunteered to do and doing it for nations, which at times, have no idea
of the measure of sacrifice exhibited by these young men and women.

Citizen Primus, my oldest, saw the headlines in the worst paper in the
world (WPITW), the Atlanta Journal Constitution.
The front page read "100 Fallen Georgia Soldiers". With a note of
surprise in his voice, he asked me what that meant. I explained to him
that we are at war and that people die in war. He is a very smart guy,
he knows that his great-grandfather served in WWII, he knows that his
father served in the Korean War and yet when he and I talk about the
current conflict - it's difficult to translate.

I do not want him to become obsessed or fearful of what is transpiring.
I do want him to understand that there is a good and evil in the world.
A set of choices we all make which can be described as right and wrong,
including the choices which skew more into the grey area. Choices of
conscience and choices of action.

Spc. Ashley made a choice. What all of his reasons behind that choice
were are unknown to me, but I think I understand some of them. I think
he served in the hopes that someday a generation will not be burdened
with that same choice.

Make your Memorial Day a true time of reflection and remembrance.

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-dodnews-l@DTIC.MIL [mailto:owner-dodnews-l@DTIC.MIL] On
Behalf Of DoD News
Sent: Friday, May 25, 2007 8:18 AM
To: DODNEWS-L@DTIC.MIL
Subject: DoD Identifies Army Casualty

NEWS RELEASES from the United States Department of Defense

No. 644-07 IMMEDIATE RELEASE
May 25, 2007
Media Contact: (703) 697-5131/697-5132
Public/Industry(703) 428-0711

DoD Identifies Army Casualty

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was
supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom.

Spc. Benjamin J. Ashley, 22, of Independence, Mo., died May 24 in
Balad, Iraq, of wounds suffered when an improvised explosive device
detonated near his vehicle.Ashley was assigned to the 1st Battalion, 5th
Field Artillery Regiment, 1st Brigade, 1st Infantry Division, Fort
Riley, Kan.

For more information in regard to this release the media can contact the
Fort Riley public affairs office at (785) 239-3410.

[Web Version:
http://www.defenselink.mil/releases/release.aspx?releaseid=10922]

-- News Releases: http://www.defenselink.mil/releases/
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http://www.defendamerica.mil

IN HONOR OF SPC. BENJAMIN J. ASHLEY 1/5 1st BDE 1ID

On the road again...

I get a chance to travel, which is the best therapy for ignorance. Few events allow one to adapt their viewpoint like first hand experience. At present I am at gate 19 in Reagan National Airport. I spent a good weekend in our nation's capital.

At my conference with the Navy I heard about the challenges facing us as a Navy and, more importantly, as a country. I was delighted to reconnect with so many friends, including some not in the Navy.

Darn kids...

Do you listen to popular music? And by that I mean the tunes favored by the 16-25 year old demographic. I am blessed (cursed) to have XM satellite radio. I find it a welcome relief to the narrow wasteland that is commercial, broadcast radio - although XM is slipping into some of the same bad habits.

Many of the songs are simple, typical teen angst love notes. Penned by inexperienced souls who long to find something meaningful in their too short lives. Some of the lyrics are downright disturbing and contrary to what I would consider rational morality.

Let me tank Pink's recent chart topper - which I find entertaining and a good listen - but also confusing. In the song just U and ur Hand she waxes poetic about how she just wants to dance at the club and not be bothered by the constantly circling male predators.

Fair enough. Jimmy Buffet wrote his Fins song about much the same thing. However, Pink drops the interesting line "...keep your drink, just gimme the money..."

Huh.

So don't bug me while I dance and drink myself stupid, but give me your money.

Am I missing something?

Just a ponderable.Where is this going? Part of our present political miasma is related to the extreme disconnect between "traditional" thinking and the way the world is presently operating. As citizens of ther United States, most of us have NOT been impacted by the war in any meaningful way.

Save the military personnel and their families, there has been ZERO effect on the nation. The economy is robust and things are pretty much status quo. There is something disturbing when the citizens of the west need bear no burden for the fate of the planet.

Gratuitous Lileks…

James Lileks is an engaging and entertaining writer. For those who don’t know his work, he has a great web site with a collection of his work at his site. He has published a couple of books is I favor him for his perspective on mid 20th century culture.

Apparently he also has a job writing for a newspaper in Minnesota.

Who knew?

Like most internet preferring readers, sometimes I don’t get the full story on the authors of what I read. Which is a bit tricky as I might actually find myself agreeing with someone like EJ Dionne, when I know in my heart that they (he? she? I’m not even sure of the gender of Mr/Ms. Dionne!) are actually a reincarnation of Karl Marx’s lost cousin Skid.

However, Lileks is a real, honest to goodness newspaper man!

(I think he’s a man – yep, he’s a man.)

Just like my uncle Bob. Now, my uncle Bob is also a real newspaperman – definitely a man. He lived in the glorious town of Indian Rocks Beach, Florida and worked for the Clearwater Sun. He was an avid opponent of Scientology (tune in later for my rant on quack religions, dangerous beliefs and the incredible gullibility of humanity) and still writes a column, a lot apparently!.

He moved from the finest state in the Union to the cold reaches inhabited by on the intrepid, like Boston Maggie, definitely a woman.

Uncle Bob was caught up in the consolidation of print media in the 1980s.

He was one of the guys who made a very positive impact on my life – I even think he’s a democrat.

He’s definitely a Navy man.

But I digress. Back to Lileks.

He has a great column on the impact of the change in his job. One of the worst appears to be no more telecommuting. Not good. I enjoyed hearing about his adventures with his daughter and, personally, I would rather field questions from my boys face to face and deal with the corporate world from the safety of my own domain.

If you don’t read his work, peruse his site. If you do, then keep it up and go read some of my Uncle Bob’s stuff!

Criminy, you don’t want to fill your hours reading the same old thing, do you?

Should we...

Greensburg, Kansas was devastated by a tornado which essentially annihilated the town. The storm was so powerful, that no public services remain. The entire main business district in this town of fifteen hundred was leveled. The governor of Kansas has made some irresponsible statements regarding the ability of her state to respond based upon National Guard deployment schedules. I can not comment on her statement, my instinct tells me it’s worthless, much as Sen. Dick Durbin’s comments about what he knew and when about the debate over the invasion of Iraq.

By the way, if you are interested in helping out, please follow this link.

To the point, Greensburg suffered a terrible tragedy. Miraculously, only 10 people lost their lives in what was billed as a F5 tornado with 205 mph winds. There was some clear preparedness by the people of the town and sufficient warning to save almost everyone.

My question is now what?

Should we rebuild Greensburg?

Does the government, state, local or otherwise, have an obligation to rebuild a city so utterly destroyed? During the great Mississippi floods of the mid 1990s, whole towns were decimated. Despite the singular nature of the flood, some towns were not rebuilt. Some towns were relocated.

The scale of the 1993 flood was so large that it overcame all measures to deal with it. The scale of the destruction of the Greensburg tornado is large enough that it overwhelms the regional ability to handle it.

Katrina impacted the Gulf Coast to such an extent that many municipalities are thinking twice about rebuilding.

The town should be commended to preventing a massive loss of life. Regrettably, the only task remaining for Greensburg is to remove the debris, shelter the homeless and decide on how and whether to rebuild.

A trip to Army Girl: Serendipity...

Army Girl: Serendipity: A neat little slice of a junior enlightened enlisted's view from the box. I like to dop by here periodically.

Dianne Feinstein Indicted on Criminal Charges...

Okay, so that is not true. Yet. It seems that the senator from California may be complicit in illegally funneling $1.5bn in MILCON funds to companies controlled by her husband. If you think this is bad, let's see how the newly minted democratic congress handles this issue.

I am not a fan of congress. Any governing by committee or representation will fall into a sectarian nest of vitriolic self-interest with no interest in the whole, except as it serves to provide for their benefit.

But, it's worked for us so far. The problem is that we are now able to see every indiscretion and every backroom deal that takes place.

Does it matter?

Can we handle the truth?

Do we want to?

I, for one, do. I expect accountability. I expect good behavior. I require good stewardship on behalf of the WHOLE country.

Feinstein should be held to the same standard.

As should ALL our elected and appointed officials.

Quick Survey...

Hello folks!  Quick question - the return of Day by Day and the Deux News - interesting or not?  Value added or not?  Remember this is all about my own ego, I mean my beloved readers. 

 

PS - Take a look at my del.ico.com on the sidebar.  A great article from The Prospect on why the Middle East doesn't matter and a rant from Kaplan on the inappropriateness of Congress legislating foreign policy.

 

PPS - I am preparing to send one of my best sailors over to the sandbox.  She is a heavy duty civic works manager in her civilian life and a single mom.  She is perhaps the one of the finest people I have met (myself included).  She has been recalled once before and is now off to perform again for the nation. 

 

 

Forgotten, but not gone...

Well, dear reader(s), I am forgetful, but not gone.  I have been traveling quite a bit and not inclined to blog.  Just a few notes;

 

• The democratic influenced portion of congress seeks to intervene in foreign policy – bad
• The democratic candidates for president all commit to “getting us out of Iraq” – how? – not so good.
• Immigration rallies continue, but no one notices…

 

Ah well, I guess there really is no news worth discussing.

 

 

 

Pictures...

I am not a happy guy.

Some whack-job decides to unleashed his pathetic rage on 32 helpless, defenseless fellow humans. On top of this, NBC (stands for Nothing Beats Carnage) airs his delusional ranting as if this is an explanation for his behavior. The criminal murderer of Blacksburg, Virginia, deserves nothing. He was an immigrant to the greatest nation on the planet, he attended one of the best schools on the planet and had access to immeasurable resources. And yet he portrayed himself as "oppressed".

Ridiculous.

To be certain, he was very mentally ill. The fact that a Virginia judge rendered such a judgment shows that the system works. The fact that he remained eligible to purchase a firearm underscores how the system does not.

Let me be clear, I am a conservative on the issues of the second amendment. I firmly believe that the founding fathers intended the right to bear arms to be an individual right. With no standing army, the phrase "well regulated militia" was a secondary benefit. Had even one legally armed individual been present, I am certain the effects of this deranged person's action could have been stopped or mitigated.

What is most galling is the reaction of the media to this story. Why did he do it, they cry. While showing his homegrown terrorist rant. There is little or no mystery here. We have an individual who felt ostracized (in truth or his own perception). We have a person who was identified by the authorities as being a danger to himself, and possibly others. This individual lacked the support (or enforcement) to seek help on his own.

Here is my message to anyone who cares to note it. Pay attention to your friends and colleagues. Let them know you care and do not take for granted how they may be feeling.

A little more compassion can go a long way to preventing another such horror.

Words...

Don Imus, of who I am no fan, is out. I am sympathetic, but not swayed by the free speech arguments. His platform was enshrined in his contract with CBS and MSNBC. Two organizations who live and die by perceptions. Some time ago I was involved with a promotion involving the Dixie Chicks. It was a good (and expensive) project. It targeted our main demographic and looked like a real winner. A coup for our brands. Then they made their statements in the UK. Upon reading these comments I contacted the planning director and asked if I should pull the promotion. He scoffed at me and said the issue would blow over.

Five hours later I was contacted by a VP with orders to suspend the promotion. This cost the firm a LOT of money. The market reacted to the possible perception surrounding the comments by the Dixie Chicks. They certainly had the right to say whatever they wanted, however, as they made their livelihood in the realm of perception, they were subject to its risks and consequences.

Imus has found out the same thing. His comments were ignorant and unkind. However, his point about the lack of remorse for the overzealous persecution of the Duke lacrosse players is well made and underscores our present state of hyper-political correctness.

It's a jungle out there!

Too much noise...

In my little section of del.icio.us on this blog are a number of articles which are of interest to me. As I still haven't figured out how to e-mail links to the blog, my attempt at redirecting you will have to suffice. Some of the topics include;

The bleak future painted by the UK Ministry of Defence (I always thought MOD sounded WAY cooler than our own DoD) includes a cyber-punk universe where jacked in middle class types overturn the status quo. My follow up question would be to do what? Get a bigger TV?

IMPORTANT BOOK RECOMMENDATION - Go and buy Daniel Gilbert's Stumbling on Happiness.. It is a great analysis of why we are or are not happy. Including some interesting neuroscience.

I also have been nursing an on again / off again fascination with the present wave of NewWage (Cosmic Connie's coined phrase) self-indulgence, ala the Secret and other pop psychology. My new prediction for events "jumping the shark" will be any appearance on Oprah.

Finally the British sailors and marines have been released. Yeah! The Iranians are, well, Iranian. Not bad as a people but lousy and dangerous as a government and ideology. Now that they are safe an home, drinking fine beers and eating pork pies, they can tell us the truth of their captivity.

Surprise! The Iranians used coercion, deception and tortuous interrogation to manipulate their responses.

My own personal life has become so hectic that my time to blog has been enormously reduced. I have found a few interesting sites and intend to update my blog rolls in the near future.

Oh yeah, that DADT editorial still sits half written...